Speak Up
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS
1. Do you find the author's classification of European countries logical and reasonable? What are the criteria of this classification?
2. Do you share his view of Europe as a ‘schizophrenic entity'?
3. What does the statement “post-Cold War Europe is in benign chaos” imply? Do you agree with this opinion?
TEXT B
Read Text B for detail and say if George Friedman has a compelling case for his view of Europe.
EUROPE: THE PRESENT AND THE FUTURE
Underneath the surface of the EU, the old European nationalisms continue to assert themselves, albeit sluggishly>41>>42. This can be seen in economic negotiations within the EU. The French, for example, assert the right to protect their farmers from excessive competition, or the right not to honor treaties controlling their deficits. Therefore, in a geopolitical context, Europe has not become a unified transnational entity.
For these reasons, talking of Europe as if it were a single entity like the United States, or China, is illusory. It is a collection of nation-states, still shell-shocked by World War II, the Cold War, and the loss of empire. These nation-states are highly insular>43> and determine their geopolitical actions according to their individual interests. Primary interactions are not between Europe and the rest of the world, but among European nations. In this sense, Europe behaves far more like Latin America than like a great power. In Latin America, Brazil and Argentina spend a great deal of time thinking about each other, knowing that their effect on the globe is limited.
Russia is the immediate strategic threat to Europe. Russia is interested not in conquering Europe, but in reasserting its control over the former Soviet Union. From the Russian point of view, this is both a reasonable attempt to establish some minimal sphere of influence and essentially a defensive measure. However, it is a defensive measure that will immediately affect the three Baltic states, which are now integrated into European institutions.
Unit III. EU at the Crossroads
Obviously the Eastern Europeans want to prevent a Russian resurgence. The real question is what the rest of Europe might do — and especially, what Germany might do. The Germans are now in a comfortable position with a buffer between them and the Russians, free to focus on their internal economic and social problems. In addition, the heritage of World War II weighs heavily on the Germans. They will not want to act alone, but as part of a unified Europe.
